The 2015 Bargain: Emerging Market Stocks

Emerging markets are notorious for being a roller coaster ride of ups and downs. So far this year, the signs are pointing to an upswing.  They could very well beat the U.S. this year. Falling oil prices and the strong U.S. dollar were problems for emerging markets in the past. They're overall positives now, experts say.Despite a recent surge, emerging markets still offer a good bang for your buck. The S&P 500 is trading at about 17 times expected earnings. Compare that to the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which is only trading at 13 times earnings. A popular fund, the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF, is up 6% in the past month alone.

http://tinyurl.com/n8wlt5w

China and Emerging Markets: The Quiet Rebound

The first quarter of 2014 is almost in the books, and so far things have been a lot tougher in the markets than the previous two years. For example, year to date through March 25, the S&P 500 is up about 1.8%. Last year, the index was up nearly 6% through the first three months. In 2012, we already were up about 11%.  Yes, it’s been harder to make money this year, and that’s particularly true if you’ve been allocated to China and/or emerging markets. The charts here of the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (FXI) and the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) show the respective tumble that took place in January, which was followed by a lot of volatility through mid-March.

http://tinyurl.com/n9m2dxn

Mr. Bernanke's Emerging Market Curse

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, the benchmark for investors interested in emerging markets, has been underperforming the S&P 500 for three years. I am sorry to say emerging markets seem destined to continue underperforming in 2014 in part due to the pending unwind of QE and its repercussions.  I stared at the relative chart of the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index fund EEM -0.42% almost with disbelief. On a relative basis, things are as bad for emerging-market investors as they were five years go near the infamous low in global markets in March 2009. EEM has rallied off that low, but the S&P 500 has rallied so much more that it is easy to see how investors interested in global markets can get disheartened.

http://tinyurl.com/m7zq55y

Don’t Forget About Emerging Markets

With the S&P 500 up 25 percent year to date, emerging markets could provide the next move for investors, Gregg Fisher, president of Gerstein Fisher, said Monday.  "We've just come 9,000 since the bottom of the market in 2009, so I think investors can't help themselves but wonder what will the future be like after this run," he said.  On CNBC's "Halftime Report," Fisher said it's time to look outside the United States.

http://tinyurl.com/mucpckb

Weak Home Builders are Good for Emerging Markets

I have noted in several of my most recent writings that we are seeing weak behavior in the home-builder stocks as of late, relative to the S&P 500, and warning that this may be an early sign that the biggest source of reflation may be about to slow down.

http://tinyurl.com/n3gsonj