Looking for reasons to be cheerful about emerging-markets debt is a tough task at the moment. Here’s one: strip out repayments, and this year will bring the first negative net debt issuance for emerging markets since 2008. Countries will be paying back more than they issue. All things being equal, scarcity value should offer support. This sounds odd. After all, the first few weeks of this year have brought a splurge of new international bonds from developing countries; nearly $28 billion worth, in fact, in 14 deals as of Jan. 28, compared with $11.49 billion in 10 deals in the same period of 2013, according to Dealogic data.
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